Vijay’s party, the Tamil Nadu Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), has become the largest party in Tamil Nadu by winning 108 seats, but it remains short of a majority. To form a government, 118 MLAs are needed.
Vijay won two seats, so one seat will have to be vacated, leaving TVK with 107 seats. The total number of seats will increase to 233, but the majority threshold will remain at 118. Consequently, TVK needs 11 more MLAs.
TVK sources indicate that talks are underway with other parties regarding an alliance.
A deal with the Congress, which has five MLAs, is almost finalised. Negotiations are underway with the VCK, CPI, and CPM for the remaining five MLAs. All three parties have two MLAs each.as won 2 seats.
Possibility 1: Congress moves away from DMK and backs Vijay
Vijay held meetings with TVK’s core committee throughout May 5. He has reportedly entrusted his close aide S. A. Chandra with the task of reaching out to parties within the DMK camp. Discussions have also begun on the possible distribution of ministries among supporting allies.
According to TVK sources, Congress could be offered two ministerial berths, while 3 to 4 posts may go to other supporting parties. Vijay is understood to have agreed in principle to head a coalition government, which removes a major hurdle in negotiations.
A senior Tamil Nadu Congress leader said, “We have promised support. The high command wanted an alliance with Vijay from the beginning.”
Will Congress then leave the DMK camp?
The same leader said, “This was bound to happen. There must have been some shortcomings in the government, which resulted in such a mandate.”
Senior journalist D. Suresh Kumar says Vijay’s party has effectively defeated both major alliances and secured nearly 35% of the vote share. In such a scenario, if any alliance attempts to keep him out of power despite TVK emerging as the largest force, it could trigger a strong public backlash from Vijay’s supporters.
Therefore, he argues, no party would want to take that political risk.
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Most leaders who contested elections from Vijay’s party are rebels or former leaders of DMK and AIADMK.
Possibility 2: A section of AIADMK MLAs could break away
TVK sources say the party is also exploring the option of securing outside support, though nothing has been finalised yet. Even if the Governor seeks letters of support before inviting a government to be formed, TVK insiders insist that arrangements can be made.
TVK MLA Sangote Srinivasan was earlier with AIADMK. A source close to him claims that he is already in touch with leaders in the AIADMK camp. His first effort is said to be to persuade party chief Edappadi K. Palaniswami. If that does not work, the focus may shift towards individual MLAs. In other words, attempts could be made to engineer a split within AIADMK.
Political analyst Ram Kumar says an arrangement with AIADMK would be the safest and easiest route for Vijay. He says,
A senior leader who is set to move from AIADMK to TVK is in talks for an alliance. They are reaching out to MLAs. It is possible that they may win them over and form the government.
His reasoning is simple: VCK, CPI and CPM have 2 seats each, while DMDK has 1 seat. All of them are currently aligned with DMK, and therefore may hesitate to openly side with Vijay.
That makes AIADMK the more practical reservoir of support.
Possibility 3: An understanding with DMK looks unlikely, Stalin unlikely to agree
Former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. K. Stalin has lost this election, though his son Udhayanidhi Stalin has won his seat. Given Udhayanidhi’s long association with the Tamil film industry, there was some speculation in political circles that a backchannel understanding with Vijay might not be impossible.
However, DMK sources say that possibility is close to zero.
A senior party leader said, “Our leader Stalin will never agree to support Vijay’s party. We have received a mandate to sit in the Opposition, and we will play that role.”
Political analyst Ram Kumar agrees that there is very little room for DMK to support Vijay.
Throughout the campaign, Vijay built his narrative around attacking the alleged corruption and failures of the Stalin government. If he now turns around and takes DMK’s support to form the government, it would seriously damage his credibility and confuse his own support base.
Put simply, such an alliance may be mathematically possible, but politically it would be extremely difficult to justify.
Possibility 4: Floor test arithmetic — MLAs stay away, majority mark comes down
To formally form the government, Vijay will have to prove his majority through a confidence vote in the Assembly. One possibility being discussed is that a section of MLAs may remain absent or stage a walkout during the floor test. If that happens, the majority mark automatically comes down.
Here is how the arithmetic works.
The Tamil Nadu Assembly has 234 seats, so under normal circumstances support from 118 MLAs is needed for a majority.
But if around 30 Opposition MLAs do not participate in the voting, the effective strength of the House falls to 204. In that case, the halfway mark comes down to 103.
That would mean Vijay could survive the trust vote with his present numbers.
Of course, this depends entirely on whether Opposition parties keep all their MLAs present. If they issue a strict whip and ensure full attendance, the path becomes much harder.
Felix Gerald, chief spokesperson of TVK, has claimed, “We are forming the government. Vijay will take oath on May 7. We are considering all options to form the government, but cannot confirm anything right now.”
The Governor has two possible courses
Senior journalist D. Suresh Kumar says the Governor has two options before him in Tamil Nadu.
First option: The Governor may ask Vijay to submit letters of support from 118 MLAs before inviting him to form the government.
This would put immediate pressure on Vijay to stitch together a coalition. With limited time available, he may have to quickly negotiate and accept the demands of supporting parties.
Second option: The Governor may invite Vijay, as leader of the single largest party, to take oath first and then prove his majority on the floor of the House within a stipulated period.
If that happens, Vijay gets breathing space. He can use those few days to mobilise support, persuade smaller parties, or work on abstentions and walkouts before the trust vote.
In other words, much now depends not just on numbers, but also on how the Raj Bhavan chooses to interpret the post-election situation.
