In Tamil Nadu, actor Thalapathy Vijay’s party TVK is leading on 109 seats. A party formed just two years ago is only 9 seats short of the majority mark of 118. Meanwhile, the BJP-backed AIADMK alliance is at 55 seats, and the DMK alliance at 71.
Since 1967, Tamil Nadu has seen 6 DMK governments and 8 AIADMK governments. Now, for the first time, a third party could form the government. However, TVK still needs to reach the 118-seat mark.
There are three possible scenarios:
1. TVK gets support from AIADMK
Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) contested all 234 seats alone. The AIADMK-led alliance includes BJP, PMK, and AMMK.
As the largest party with 109 seats, the Governor may invite TVK to form the government. TVK will need to prove it has support from at least 118 MLAs, including external backing.
If AIADMK supports TVK: 109 (TVK) + 45 (AIADMK) = 154 seats → a stable coalition government.
How likely is this?
Sources say AIADMK may support TVK without BJP to form a stable 5-year government, possibly in exchange for ministerial posts.
Both DMK and AIADMK emerged from the Dravidian movement and stand for Tamil pride, secularism, and anti-Hindi politics. However, DMK is more rigid on Periyar’s ideology, anti-Brahmin rationalism, and Tamil identity. AIADMK is relatively moderate, which is why it has allied with BJP.
On 27 October 2024, Vijay said, ‘Dravidianism and Tamil nationalism are our two eyes.’
TVK is also inspired by Dravidian politics. Vijay has cited Ambedkar and K. Kamaraj as influences and emphasized Dravidianism and Tamil pride.
TVK has mainly targeted DMK’s corruption in campaigns. BJP is also ideologically opposed to TVK. However, Vijay has been relatively soft toward AIADMK and its leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS). Since BJP has won only one seat, AIADMK could support TVK without much pressure.
2. TVK gets support from Congress and other DMK allies
The DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance includes Congress, VCK, CPI(M), CPI, MDMK, and others. TVK needs just 9 more seats. Congress has 5, CPI has 3, and IUML has 2.
If these parties switch support: 109 (TVK) + 5 (Congress) + 3 (CPI) + 2 (IUML) = 119 seats → majority achieved.
How likely is this?
Sources suggest Congress, VCK, CPI, and even PMK factions could support TVK for stability and cabinet positions.
Rahul Gandhi and Vijay reportedly share friendly relations. In January 2026, when Vijay’s film Jana Nayagan faced a release halt, Rahul supported him, criticizing PM Modi. He said, ‘Modi ji, you will never succeed in silencing the voice of Tamil people.’ TVK called this a “friendly” gesture.
After the Karur rally stampede, Rahul also spoke to Vijay.
There has also been tension between DMK and Congress over seat-sharing. Congress leaders have demanded a greater role, including power-sharing, not just seats. Congress MP Manickam Tagore said, ‘It’s time to move beyond seat-sharing to power-sharing.’
DMK leaders rejected this, maintaining that Tamil Nadu has never had a coalition government and won’t in the future. Since Congress, CPI, and IUML have never been part of the DMK government, they may consider switching support.
3. A rare scenario: TVK gets DMK support
If DMK supports TVK: 109 + 59 = 168 seats → a huge majority
However, this is unlikely because Vijay’s campaign strongly opposed DMK. He targeted CM M.K. Stalin and his son Udhayanidhi Stalin, accusing them of family rule and corruption. Vijay even said, “MGR and Jayalalithaa called DMK a demonic force. I repeat the same.”
Vijay targeted Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin (right) and his son Udhayanidhi (left)
If TVK fails to prove majority: A fourth scenario
AIADMK and DMK could join hands: Total = 124 seats → majority
This would be unprecedented and ideologically difficult, but similar situations have occurred before:
Examples from other states
1. Karnataka, 2018
- BJP: 104 seats (largest party)
- Congress: 78
- JD(S): 37
Congress supported JD(S), and H.D. Kumaraswamy became CM despite BJP being the largest party.
2. Maharashtra, 2019
- BJP: 105
- Shiv Sena: 56
Despite having a majority together, disputes over power-sharing broke the alliance. Shiv Sena then joined Congress and NCP to form the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government.
Devendra Fadnavis briefly became CM for 70 hours with Ajit Pawar’s support, but later Uddhav Thackeray formed the government and served until June 2022, when internal rebellion toppled it.
